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DCF Calculator

A two-stage discounted cash flow model with an explicit growth fade, a reverse DCF that tells you what growth the current price implies, and a sensitivity grid — because a single intrinsic value from a model this assumption-sensitive is a false comfort.

Reverse DCF included WACC × terminal growth grid No account, no paywall
The company
$M

Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, in millions. Use a normalized figure if the last year was unusual.

M
$M

Cash and equivalents minus total debt, in millions. Enter a negative number if the company is net indebted.

$

Used for the upside figure and the reverse DCF. Leave at 0 to value the business without reference to the market.

Your assumptions

These four inputs drive the entire result. The sensitivity grid below exists because small changes here move the answer a long way.

%

Growth declines linearly from the stage 1 rate to the terminal rate across these years, rather than dropping off a cliff.

%

Perpetual growth after the forecast. It cannot sensibly exceed long-run nominal GDP growth — roughly 2% to 3%.

%

Your required return, reflecting the risk of these cash flows. Must be greater than the terminal growth rate.

%

The discount to intrinsic value you require before buying. Graham's own convention was substantial.

Intrinsic value per share

$0

Equity value
$0
PV of forecast years
$0
PV of terminal value
$0
From terminal value
0%
Buy below
$0
Upside vs price
0%

Reverse DCF

This is often the most useful output on the page. Rather than asking what the company is worth, it asks what you would have to believe to justify the current price — a much harder claim to fool yourself about.

Sensitivity: discount rate against terminal growth

Intrinsic value per share across a range of both assumptions. Green cells are above the current share price, red below. If the sign flips across this grid, the model is not telling you what you hoped it would.

Cash flow projection

Each forecast year: the growth rate applied, the resulting free cash flow, the discount factor, and what it contributes to value today.

Year Growth applied Free cash flow Discount factor Present value Cumulative PV

How to use it

1

Enter the company facts

Free cash flow, share count and net cash come straight from the financial statements. These are the only inputs that are not opinions.

2

State your assumptions

Growth, how long it lasts, how it fades, the terminal rate and your discount rate. Everything downstream follows from these five numbers.

3

Check the terminal share

If most of the value sits in the terminal value, you are not valuing the next decade — you are guessing about the one after it. Shorten the fade or lower the terminal rate and see what survives.

4

Run it backwards

Read the reverse DCF. If the market is already pricing 18% growth for a decade, the question stops being whether the company is good and becomes whether it can beat that.

The discounted cash flow formula

A discounted cash flow model says a business is worth the cash it will produce, adjusted for the fact that cash arriving later is worth less than cash arriving now. Everything else is bookkeeping around that one idea.

Value = Σ [ FCF_t / (1 + r)^t ] + [ FCF_n × (1 + g) / (r − g) ] / (1 + r)^n

FCF_t is free cash flow in year t, r the discount rate, g the perpetual growth rate, and n the last explicitly forecast year. The first term is the forecast period; the second is the terminal value, discounted back from year n.

Why two stages and a fade

A single growth rate followed by an abrupt drop to 2.5% is a modeling artefact, not a view about a business. Real competitive advantage erodes gradually. This calculator grows cash flow at your stage 1 rate for the years you specify, then fades that rate linearly to the terminal rate across the fade period, so the transition is visible in the projection table rather than hidden in a formula.

Terminal value and why it dominates

The terminal value captures every year after the forecast, which is most of a company's life. It is calculated with the Gordon growth formula and is mathematically undefined unless the discount rate exceeds the perpetual growth rate — a company cannot grow faster than your required return forever. The panel reports what share of total value the terminal figure represents. For a ten-year forecast that figure is commonly 60% to 80%.

Choosing a discount rate

The discount rate is your required return given the risk. Textbooks build it from a weighted average cost of capital; many practical investors simply use a rate that reflects their hurdle — often 8% to 12% for equities. Raising it lowers value, and the sensitivity grid shows exactly how much.

Reverse DCF: what the price already implies

A forward DCF gives you a number you can talk yourself into. A reverse DCF removes that freedom: it holds the share price fixed and solves for the stage 1 growth rate that would justify it. If the answer is 6%, and you think the company will do better, you have a thesis. If the answer is 25% for a decade, you need a reason to believe something extraordinary. This is computed here by bisection on the growth rate and is available without an account.

How to not fool yourself with a DCF

A DCF is a machine for converting assumptions into a number that looks objective. Used carefully it is the most honest valuation tool there is; used carelessly it launders a hunch into a price target.

Watch the terminal share

If 85% of your value comes from the terminal value, the forecast period is decoration. Either extend the explicit forecast, lower the terminal growth rate, or accept that you are making a very long-dated bet and size the position accordingly.

Margin of safety

Because the output is this sensitive to inputs, buying at your calculated intrinsic value leaves no room for being wrong. A margin of safety — the discount you demand before acting — is the practical answer. The buy-below figure applies your chosen discount to the intrinsic value.

Worked examples

Each reproducible with the calculator above.

  • $1,000M free cash flow, 500M shares, no net cash, 10% growth for 5 years, 5-year fade to 2.5%, 9% discount rate. About $48.07 per share, with roughly 58% of that value coming from the terminal value rather than the ten forecast years.
  • Same company, discount rate raised from 9% to 11%. Intrinsic value falls from about $48.07 to about $36.06 — a quarter of the value gone from changing one assumption, with no change to the business.
  • Same company at a $40 share price. The reverse DCF reports the stage 1 growth rate the market is already paying for, which is the number worth arguing about.
  • Terminal growth moved from 2.5% to 3.5%. Watch the terminal share climb. A rate above long-run nominal GDP growth implies the company eventually becomes the whole economy.
  • Net debt instead of net cash. Enter a negative net cash figure and the equity value drops by exactly that amount — leverage is not free.

DCF calculator FAQ

How the model works, which inputs to use, and where discounted cash flow analysis genuinely breaks down.

DCF basics

What is a discounted cash flow calculator?

A tool that estimates what a business is worth today by projecting the cash it will generate and discounting those future amounts back to the present. The output is an intrinsic value you can compare with the market price.

How does a DCF valuation work?

Three steps: forecast free cash flow for an explicit period, estimate a terminal value covering everything after it, then discount both back at a rate reflecting risk. Add net cash, divide by shares outstanding, and you have a per-share figure.

What is free cash flow and where do I find it?

Cash from operations minus capital expenditure. Both appear on the cash flow statement in any annual report or 10-K filing. It is the cash genuinely available to owners after the business has paid to maintain itself.

What is terminal value?

The value of all cash flows after the explicit forecast period, condensed into one figure using the Gordon growth formula: final-year cash flow times one plus the terminal growth rate, divided by the discount rate minus that growth rate.

What makes this a two-stage model?

Stage 1 applies your growth rate for a set number of years. Stage 2 fades that rate linearly down to the terminal rate. This avoids the unrealistic cliff where a company grows 20% one year and 2.5% forever after.

What is the difference between enterprise value and equity value?

Enterprise value is the value of the operating business. Equity value adds net cash or subtracts net debt, because cash on the balance sheet belongs to shareholders and debt is a claim ahead of them. The per-share figure comes from equity value.

Is this free, and do I need an account?

It is free with no account. The reverse DCF and the sensitivity matrix are included rather than reserved for a paid tier, because they are the parts that stop the model from being misleading.

Choosing inputs

What discount rate should I use?

It should reflect the risk of the cash flows and your own required return. A textbook WACC blends the cost of equity and after-tax cost of debt; many investors instead use a flat hurdle, commonly 8% to 12% for equities. Higher risk means a higher rate and a lower value.

What terminal growth rate is reasonable?

Something at or below long-run nominal GDP growth, so roughly 2% to 3%. Any perpetual rate above that implies the company eventually grows larger than the entire economy, which is not a valuation — it is an arithmetic error.

How many years should I forecast?

Five to ten explicit years plus a fade is typical. Longer forecasts feel more rigorous and are not: nobody forecasts year 14 usefully. The right instinct is to shorten the forecast and lean on a conservative terminal rate.

Should I use last year's free cash flow?

Only if it was representative. A year distorted by a one-off legal settlement, an acquisition, or an unusual capex cycle will propagate through every projected year. Use an average of several years, or a normalized estimate.

What if the company has negative free cash flow?

The calculator accepts a negative figure, but a DCF is the wrong tool for a business that does not yet generate cash. The model will grow a negative number and return a negative value. For pre-profit companies, scenario analysis is more honest.

Should I use basic or diluted shares?

Diluted, and ideally including expected future stock-based compensation. Using basic shares systematically overstates per-share value at companies that pay staff in equity.

What margin of safety should I require?

There is no correct figure, but the more sensitive your valuation is to assumptions, the larger it should be. Many value investors use 20% to 50%. The buy-below output applies whatever you choose to the intrinsic value.

Reverse DCF

What is a reverse DCF?

Instead of producing a value from assumed growth, it takes the current share price as given and solves for the growth rate that would justify it. It converts a vague question — is this cheap? — into a specific one you can actually research.

How is the implied growth rate calculated?

By bisection. The model is run repeatedly, adjusting the stage 1 growth rate until the resulting per-share value matches the share price to a very tight tolerance. Value increases monotonically with growth, so the search always converges.

How should I use the implied growth rate?

Compare it against what the company has actually achieved and what its industry plausibly allows. If the market implies 8% and the business has compounded at 15% with a durable moat, that gap is your thesis. If the market implies 25%, the burden of proof is on you.

Why does the reverse DCF sometimes show nothing?

Either no share price is entered, or no growth rate in the searched range (−50% to 100%) produces the current price. The latter usually means the price cannot be reconciled with your other assumptions — which is itself informative.

Limits and pitfalls

Is a DCF actually reliable?

It is only as reliable as its inputs, and it is extremely sensitive to two of them. That is not a reason to avoid it, but it is the reason this page shows a sensitivity grid rather than a single confident number.

Why is so much of the value in the terminal value?

Because it represents every year beyond your forecast, which is most of a company's life. A share of 60% to 80% is normal for a ten-year forecast. When it climbs past 85%, the explicit forecast has stopped doing meaningful work.

Why does the calculator refuse to produce a value sometimes?

Because the discount rate is not greater than the terminal growth rate. The Gordon growth formula divides by the difference between them, so an equal or inverted pair implies infinite value. The calculator says so rather than printing a nonsense figure.

When is a DCF the wrong tool?

For pre-revenue or pre-cash-flow companies, for banks and insurers where free cash flow is not meaningful, for cyclical businesses at an extreme of the cycle, and for anything where the outcome is genuinely binary. A relative valuation or scenario approach fits those better.

How does this compare with other free DCF calculators?

The common free tools give a single intrinsic value from a single set of assumptions and frequently keep the reverse DCF behind a subscription. This one includes the reverse DCF, states what proportion of the value is terminal, and shows a full sensitivity grid — the three things that keep the model honest.

Does it account for buybacks or dilution?

Not dynamically. Share count is a fixed input, so ongoing buybacks or dilution are not modeled year by year. For a company changing its share count materially, adjust the input or run the model twice at different share counts.

Is the intrinsic value a price target?

No. It is the arithmetic consequence of assumptions you chose. It is not a forecast of where the share price will go, not a recommendation, and not advice. Treat it as a way to make your own assumptions explicit and testable.

Do my figures get sent anywhere?

No. The entire model runs in your browser. Nothing you enter is transmitted, logged or stored, which you can verify in your browser's network panel.

Method and limitations

Free cash flow is grown at the stage 1 rate for the stage 1 years, then at a rate fading linearly to the terminal rate across the fade period. Each year is discounted at the discount rate over that year's index. Terminal value uses Gordon growth on the final projected year and is discounted from the last explicit year. Net cash is added to enterprise value to reach equity value, which is divided by shares outstanding. The reverse DCF solves for the stage 1 growth rate by bisection.

A DCF is a model, not a measurement. It is highly sensitive to the discount rate and terminal growth rate, does not model buybacks, dilution or changing capital structure, and is unsuitable for financial companies and pre-cash-flow businesses. Output is not a price target and nothing here is investment advice.

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